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19881210RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 345
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 10 DEC 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. A REGION THAT IS NOW
PERHAPS ONE DAY BEHIND EAST LIMB PRODUCED A LONG-DURATION
(FIVE HOURS) M2 X-RAY FLARE WITH TYPE II AND IV AT 1450Z.
WEATHER HAMPERED OPTICAL PATROLS ALL DAY, BUT ONE SITE DID
REPORT POST-FLARE LOOPS AT N28. THAT IS THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION
OF OLD REGION 5241 (N28, L=291) WHICH PRODUCED M-CLASS ACTIVITY
DURING ITS WEST LIMB PASSAGE AND IS DUE BACK TOMORROW. REGION
5265 (N20W06) GENERATED AN M2/1N EVENT WITH TYPE IV AT 9/2118Z
AND ALSO AN M1 AT 1654Z TODAY. SECTIONS OF A LARGE BUSHY
FILAMENT THAT EXTENDED FROM N40W00 TO N15W20 DISAPPEARED DURING
THE INTERVAL. A NEW REGION, 5274 (N33E47), WAS ASSIGNED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. WATCH EAST LIMB NEAR N28 AS WELL AS REGION
5265 FOR ADDITIONAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET EARLY, BECOMING UNSETTLED
AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THE NEXT TWO DAYS. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR 13 DEC. AS RECENT DISAPPEARING FILAMENT
AND FLARE ACTIVITY MAY SPAWN A SHORT DISTURBANCE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 DEC-13 DEC
CLASS M 70/70/70
CLASS X 20/20/20
PROTON 20/20/20
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 10 DEC 164
PREDICTED 11 DEC-13 DEC 167/170/173
90 DAY MEAN 10 DEC 161
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 DEC 002/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 DEC 007/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 DEC-13 DEC 010/012-010/015-015/028