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19881209RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 344
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 09 DEC 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5265 (N19E08)
PRODUCED NEARLY ALL OF THE FLARES OBSERVED DURING THE INTERVAL,
AMONG THEM AN M2/1N AT 0320Z AND AN M3/0N AT 0737Z. BOTH OF
THOSE IMPULSIVE EVENTS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST DISCRETE
FREQUENCY RADIO BURSTS. THE H-ALPHA FLARES WERE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE PLAGE IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MAIN SPOT, PERHAPS THE
SITE OF AN ISOLATED POLE. ELSEWHERE, TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED: 5272 (S15E63) AND 5273 (S33E72). MINOR SURGING WAS
REPORTED AT BOTH LIMBS.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5265 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS, MARKING THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF QUIET
CONDITIONS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 DEC-12 DEC
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 09 DEC 170
PREDICTED 10 DEC-12 DEC 172/175/178
90 DAY MEAN 09 DEC 161
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 DEC 003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 DEC 001/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 DEC-12 DEC 005/006-010/010-010/010