FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 345
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 10 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. A REGION THAT IS NOW
PERHAPS ONE DAY BEHIND EAST LIMB PRODUCED A LONG-DURATION
(FIVE HOURS) M2 X-RAY FLARE WITH TYPE II AND IV AT 1450Z.
WEATHER HAMPERED OPTICAL PATROLS ALL DAY, BUT ONE SITE DID
REPORT POST-FLARE LOOPS AT N28. THAT IS THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION
OF OLD REGION 5241 (N28, L=291) WHICH PRODUCED M-CLASS ACTIVITY
DURING ITS WEST LIMB PASSAGE AND IS DUE BACK TOMORROW. REGION
5265 (N20W06) GENERATED AN M2/1N EVENT WITH TYPE IV AT 9/2118Z
AND ALSO AN M1 AT 1654Z TODAY. SECTIONS OF A LARGE BUSHY
FILAMENT THAT EXTENDED FROM N40W00 TO N15W20 DISAPPEARED DURING
THE INTERVAL. A NEW REGION, 5274 (N33E47), WAS ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. WATCH EAST LIMB NEAR N28 AS WELL AS REGION
5265 FOR ADDITIONAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET EARLY, BECOMING UNSETTLED
AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THE NEXT TWO DAYS. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR 13 DEC. AS RECENT DISAPPEARING FILAMENT
AND FLARE ACTIVITY MAY SPAWN A SHORT DISTURBANCE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 DEC-13 DEC
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 DEC  164
PREDICTED   11 DEC-13 DEC  167/170/173
90 DAY MEAN        10 DEC  161
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 09 DEC  002/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 DEC  007/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 DEC-13 DEC  010/012-010/015-015/028