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19881211RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 346
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 11 DEC 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUES MODERATE. NEWLY NUMBERED
REGION 5275 (S32E55), FORMERLY THOUGHT TO BE THE TRAILER PORTION
OF REGION 5273 (S31E42), PRODUCED AN M1/0F FLARE AT 10/2304Z AND
ANOTHER M1/0F AT 1029Z. IT ALSO YIELDED NUMEROUS SMALLER FLARES,
SOME OF WHICH WERE ACCOMPANIED BY SYMPATHETIC ACTIVITY IN REGION
5273. THIS COMPLEX IS LENGTHY AND BRIGHT AS TODAY'S LARGE
INCREASE IN THE 10 CM. FLUX WILL ATTEST. REGION 5265 (N20W19)
HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET AND STABLE. TWO OTHER NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED: 5276 (S12E02) AND 5277 (S13W34). ANOTHER REGION WAS
EXPECTED NEAR N28 EAST LIMB, THE SITE OF YESTERDAY'S FLARE
LOOPS, BUT HAS YET TO APPEAR ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FROM REGIONS
5265 AND 5275 DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALSO, WATCH THE NORTH-
EAST LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS PREVAIL-
ED MOST RECENTLY. A SUDDEN IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 1827Z AND IT
MEASURED 6 NANOTESLAS AT BOULDER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE RELATED
TO A SMALL CORONAL HOLE POSSIBLY LOCATED NEAR N10W35. THIS IS
ASSUMING THAT THE CORONAL HOLE VISIBLE ON DEC. 6, THE LAST
DATA RECEIVED, HAS PERSISTED.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 DEC-14 DEC
CLASS M 70/70/70
CLASS X 20/20/20
PROTON 20/20/20
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 11 DEC 184
PREDICTED 12 DEC-14 DEC 189/193/195
90 DAY MEAN 11 DEC 162
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 DEC 006/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 DEC 015/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 DEC-14 DEC 015/012-015/018-010/015