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19881020RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 294
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 20 OCT 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUES MODERATE. REGION 5200
(N20E41) GENERATED AN M1/0N FLARE AT 19/2213Z. IN ADDITION, A
C9 X-RAY FLARE AT 0635Z IS THOUGHT TO BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THIS
SAME REGION. BAD WEATHER HAMPERED OPTICAL PATROL DURING MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TWO NEW REGIONS - 5203 (S23W53) AND 5204
(N21W30) - WERE NUMBERED. SURGING OCCURRED AT THE SOUTHWEST LIMB
MUCH OF THE DAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE. REGION 5200 IS A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR PERIODIC
M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES. MOSTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS AND A STINT OF MINOR
STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDE SITES.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 OCT-23 OCT
CLASS M 75/75/75
CLASS X 15/15/15
PROTON 15/15/15
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 20 OCT 168
PREDICTED 21 OCT-23 OCT 171/173/175
90 DAY MEAN 20 OCT 158
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 OCT 010/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 OCT 012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 OCT-23 OCT 010/018-010/020-010/020