FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 294
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 20 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUES MODERATE. REGION 5200
(N20E41) GENERATED AN M1/0N FLARE AT 19/2213Z. IN ADDITION, A
C9 X-RAY FLARE AT 0635Z IS THOUGHT TO BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THIS
SAME REGION. BAD WEATHER HAMPERED OPTICAL PATROL DURING MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. TWO NEW REGIONS - 5203 (S23W53) AND 5204
(N21W30) - WERE NUMBERED. SURGING OCCURRED AT THE SOUTHWEST LIMB
MUCH OF THE DAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE. REGION 5200 IS A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR PERIODIC
M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES. MOSTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS AND A STINT OF MINOR
STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDE SITES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 OCT-23 OCT
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 OCT  168
PREDICTED   21 OCT-23 OCT  171/173/175
90 DAY MEAN        20 OCT  158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 19 OCT  010/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 OCT  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 OCT-23 OCT  010/018-010/020-010/020