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19881021RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 295
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 21 OCT 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. IT CONSISTED OF
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. A NEW REGION WAS ASSIGNED, REGION
5205 (N16E56). SURGING CONTINUED AT THE SOUTHWEST LIMB.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5200 (N21E28), ALTHOUGH DORMANT MUCH OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS, POSSESSES THE ATTRIBUTES NECESSARY FOR M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES HAD AN EPISODE OF MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS EARLY AND WERE QUIET TO UNSETTLED SINCE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 OCT-24 OCT
CLASS M 75/75/75
CLASS X 15/15/15
PROTON 15/15/15
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 21 OCT 166
PREDICTED 22 OCT-24 OCT 166/169/172
90 DAY MEAN 21 OCT 159
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 OCT 016/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 OCT 007/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 OCT-24 OCT 010/018-010/015-005/015