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19881019RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 293
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 19 OCT 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY PERSISTS AT A MODERATE LEVEL.
REGION 5200 (N21E55), A LARGE MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX SPOT GROUP,
PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 1916Z. THAT LONG-DURATION FLARE HAS
YET TO DECAY TO BACKGROUND LEVELS AT THIS TIME. REGION 5184
(S12W75) GENERATED A C5/0F EVENT AT 1300Z, DISTINGUISHED BY
MODEST DISCRETE FREQUENCY RADIO BURSTS THAT SPANNED THE
SPECTRUM. SURGING OCCURRED NEAR N13 AT WEST LIMB WHERE REGION
5182 IS LOCATED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE. REGION 5200 IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
UNTIL 0430Z, THEN MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS THEREAFTER.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 OCT-22 OCT
CLASS M 75/75/75
CLASS X 15/15/15
PROTON 15/15/15
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 19 OCT 166
PREDICTED 20 OCT-22 OCT 170/173/176
90 DAY MEAN 19 OCT 158
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT 021/034
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT 011/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT 010/017-010/015-010/015