FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 293
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 19 OCT 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY PERSISTS AT A MODERATE LEVEL.
REGION 5200 (N21E55), A LARGE MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX SPOT GROUP,
PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 1916Z. THAT LONG-DURATION FLARE HAS
YET TO DECAY TO BACKGROUND LEVELS AT THIS TIME. REGION 5184
(S12W75) GENERATED A C5/0F EVENT AT 1300Z, DISTINGUISHED BY
MODEST DISCRETE FREQUENCY RADIO BURSTS THAT SPANNED THE
SPECTRUM. SURGING OCCURRED NEAR N13 AT WEST LIMB WHERE REGION
5182 IS LOCATED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATE. REGION 5200 IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
UNTIL 0430Z, THEN MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS THEREAFTER.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 OCT-22 OCT
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 OCT  166
PREDICTED   20 OCT-22 OCT  170/173/176
90 DAY MEAN        19 OCT  158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 18 OCT  021/034
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT  011/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT  010/017-010/015-010/015