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19881018RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 292
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 18 OCT 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 5200
(N21E66) KEPT ACTIVITY AT MODERATE LEVELS BY PRODUCING AN
M1/1B FLARE AT 18/0040Z. THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE
MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX, POSSESSING A DELTA CONFIGURATION
IN THE LEADER SUNSPOTS. REGION 5101 (S17W66) HAS DEVELOPED
SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY, EMERGING DIRECTLY NORTH OF REGION 5190
(S19W65). NEW REGION 5202 (S13E64) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST
LIMB AS A SMALL BIPOLE.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED FROM
REGION 5200. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE FROM
REGION 5190.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT UNSETTLED TO STORM LEVELS
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 OCT-21 OCT
CLASS M 75/75/75
CLASS X 20/20/20
PROTON 20/20/20
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 18 OCT 162
PREDICTED 19 OCT-21 OCT 160/160/160
90 DAY MEAN 18 OCT 158
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 OCT 014/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 OCT 028/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 OCT-21 OCT 018/025-015/020-010/015