Will it be possible to fill all these channels? And what size TV guide will be required to list them all?
Will Sprague's project succeed? Yes, probably, for as Peter Drucker contends, a new system can displace an established sytem if it outperforms it by a factor of 10 - unless it does so, the established system will have enough money, momentum, expertise, legal clout, capital plant, installed base and satisfied customers to hold off the new concept.
Two-way interactive TV
TV in the future is also likely to come via telephone lines, especially in the States where federal regulators have eased the rules forbidding TV companies from entering the TV and video business. This brings closer the concept of two-way TV - with consumers able to transmit their own programmes. George Gilder writes optimistically of the effects that this will have:
'Such a system will be the telecomputer, a personal computer adapted for video processing and connected by fibre-optic threads to other telecomputers all around the uorld. Using a two-way system of signals like telephones do, rather than broadcasting one-way like TV, the telecomputer will surpass the television in video communication, just as the telephone surpassed the telegraph in verbal communication.
'The telecomputer's impact on every facet of life and culture will be fully as potent as the impact of television has been. But the telecomputer's influence will be radically different. The telecomputer may even reverse the effects of the television age.
'Rather than exalting mass culture, the telecomputer will enhance individualism. Rather than cultivating passivity, the telecomputer will promote creativity. Instead of a master-slave architecture, the telecomputer will have an interactive architecture in which every receiver can function as a processor and transmitter of video images and other information. The telecomputer will enrich and strengthen democracy and capitalism all around the world. For television at present is at its heart a totalitarian medium. Because television signals originate at a single station and are sent top-down to the masses, tyrants everywhere push TV sets onto their people.
The very nature of broadcasting at present means that television cannot cater to the special interests of audiences dispersed across the country. Television is not vulgar because people are vulgar; it is vulgar because people are similar in their prurient interests and sharply differentiated in their civilised concerns. All of world industry is moving increasingly toward more segmented markets. But in today's broadcast medium, such a move would be a commercial disaster. In a broadcast medium, artists and writers cannot appeal to the highest aspirations and sensibilities of individuals. Instead, manipulative masters rule over huge masses of people.
Television is a tool of tyrants. Its overthrow will be a major force for freedom and individuality, culture and morality. That overthrow is at hand.
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