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91-10-13.DLY
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1991-10-13
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DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
13 OCTOBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 286, 10/13/91
10.7 FLUX=183.3 90-AVG=197 SSN=190 BKI=1121 2322 BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=B7.7 FLU1=1.1E+06 FLU10=7.9E+03 PKI=1112 3222 PAI=008
BOU-DEV=009,009,011,007,018,022,010,013 DEV-AVG=012 NT SWF=03:036
XRAY-MAX= M5.9 @ 1815UT XRAY-MIN= B6.8 @ 1014UT XRAY-AVG= C2.0
NEUTN-MAX= +004% @ 1230UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 0750UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.8%
PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1205UT PCA-MIN= -0.7DB @ 1430UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55310NT @ 1347UT BOUTF-MIN=55267NT @ 1913UT BOUTF-AVG=55296NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1716UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 2358UT G7-AVG=+088,+040,+005
GOES6-MAX=P:+126NT@ 2048UT GOES6-MIN=E:-019NT@ 0537UT G6-AVG=+099,-004,+023
FLUXFCST=STD:185,188,190;SESC:185,185,185 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,007,007/010,010,010
KFCST=2233 3222 2233 3222 27DAY-AP=007,006 27DAY-KP=1212 2322 1112 2222
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR
ALERTS=**MAJFLR:M5.9/1N,N22E82(6879),1805-1815-1837;**MINFLR:M1.1@2014;
**MINFLR:M1.6@2105
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity became high today with the unexpected eruption of a major
class M5.9/1N flare from newly assigned Region 6879 (N23E77 at 00 UT). The
location of the flare was N22E82, very near the northeast limb. As a result,
the optical size of this flare may have been underestimated. There were no
significant radio emissions observed with this flare. Only discrete bursts
were reported. No sweeps accompanied this event. Region 6879 appears to be
only moderately large and is not particularly complex at the present time.
However, the proximity of this region to the limb is hampering attempts to
analyze the region. More will become known in the next several days. Until
then, there may be a fairly good chance for another major flare from this
region. Minor M-class flares are also likely to occur from this group.
Region 6873 (S23E08) remained large and moderately complex today. It
was fairly stable and did not grow or decay significantly. This region is
capable of producing minor M-class flares.
Geomagnetic and auroral activity have been quiet over the last 24 hours.
Conditions should remain quiet and stable over the next 72 hours.
HF propagation conditions have been normal to slightly above normal
today. A brief SWF may have accompanied todays major solar flare over the
low and middle sunlit latitudes, although nothing particularly significant
has been reported. There is a risk for continued brief periods of minor
daytime signal degradation associated with possible minor or major flare
activity. Despite this, conditions should continue near normal to above
normal over the next 24 to 72 hours.
** End of Daily Update **