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91-10-14.DLY
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1991-10-14
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/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
14 OCTOBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 287, 10/14/91
10.7 FLUX=187 90-AVG=198 SSN=182 BKI=1121 3221 BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=C1.1 FLU1=7.9E+05 FLU10=8.1E+03 PKI=1112 3322 PAI=008
BOU-DEV=009,009,010,***,***,***,***,009 DEV-AVG=009 NT SWF=**:***
XRAY-MAX= M6.6 @ 1738UT XRAY-MIN= B7.2 @ 0536UT XRAY-AVG= C1.9
NEUTN-MAX= +004% @ 0905UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 0605UT NEUTN-AVG= +1.1%
PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 0315UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 0500UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55304NT @ 0900UT BOUTF-MIN=55300NT @ 0212UT BOUTF-AVG=55302NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+083NT@ 0004UT GOES7-MIN=N:-004NT@ 0104UT G7-AVG=+058,+042,+003
GOES6-MAX=P:+115NT@ 0009UT GOES6-MIN=E:-021NT@ 0604UT G6-AVG=+083,-014,+011
FLUXFCST=STD:190,190,187;SESC:185,185,185 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,010,010/010,018,018
KFCST=2233 3222 2333 3322 27DAY-AP=006,011 27DAY-KP=1112 2222 2224 3322
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR
ALERTS=**MAJFLR:M6.6/3N,S24E34(6878),1731-1738-1742;**MINFLR:M1@2106;
**MINFLR:M1.3@0322
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: Due to technical difficulties experienced during the UT day, some of
the above data is not available. Those values which are unavailable are
marked with an asterisk (*).
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity was high again today. Region 6878 (S21E29) spawned an
unexpectedly large major flare at 17:38 UT. The event attained a class
M6.6/3N x-ray/optical rating. This event was impulsive and did not produce
anything other than weak radio emissions. No sweeps were recorded. This
event is not expected to have a terrestrial impact. Surprisingly, Region
6878 spawned this flare without experiencing any growth or decay during the
day. In fact, even after the flare, very little structural changes were
observed in this region. It does not appear very impressive or threatening.
It may be capable of producing further M-class flares, but is not expected to
produce any other major flares (although a slight risk does exist).
Region 6879 (N22E63) moved to a slightly better observational position,
but is still a bit too near to the limb to discern significant magnetic
detail in the region. It too, is not very impressive in H-alpha or
white-light, but is obviously a notable flare producer, having spawned two
M-class flares over the last 24 hours and a major flare over the last 48
hours. This region has not undergone any substantial changes. It has been
structurally stable. This is sufficient reason to expect further minor and
possible major flaring from this region in the future.
Region 6873 (S23W06) began to show signs of decay today. However, it
has remained complex both magnetically (now a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
group) and optically (DKI). It produced two subflares during the day, but
was unable to muster anything more significant. This region is still capable
of spawning M-class events.
Due to the fact that several regions presently visible are prime
candidates for M-class flare activity, we expect solar activity to remain
moderate to high over the next 24 hours. There is also a moderate
possibility for another major flare from either Region 6878 or 6879.
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet today. Conditions should remain
quiet over the next 24 to 48 hours. Thereafter, an increase to unsettled or
active levels may be observed as a coronal hole begins to disturb the near
Earth space environment.
Auroral activity has been dormant, but should begin to increase somewhat
on 17 and 18 October in response to the coronal hole.
HF propagation conditions have been normal to slightly above normal
today. Conditions should continue normal to above normal over the next 24 to
48 hours. Thereafter, low and middle latitudes should observe mostly normal
conditions. High latitudes may begin to suffer slightly below normal
conditions as a result of elevated geomagnetic and auroral activity levels
after 16 or 17 October.
** End of Daily Update **