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91-10-01.DLY
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1991-10-01
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/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
01 OCTOBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 01 OCTOBER
-----------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 274, 10/01/91
10.7 FLUX=207.5 90-AVG=200 SSN=259 BKI=4454 3355 BAI=031
BGND-XRAY=C1.4 FLU1=2.7E+07 FLU10=5.7E+05 PKI=3454 3366 PAI=040
BOU-DEV=285,062,102,056,027,279,114,085 DEV-AVG=126 NT SWF=02:010
XRAY-MAX= M3.0 @ 0616UT XRAY-MIN= C1.2 @ 2205UT XRAY-AVG= C2.5
NEUTN-MAX= +004% @ 1440UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 2250UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
PCA-MAX= +0.6DB @ 2310UT PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1450UT PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55366NT @ 2346UT BOUTF-MIN=55246NT @ 1907UT BOUTF-AVG=55294NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+164NT@ 1836UT GOES7-MIN=N:-025NT@ 2333UT G7-AVG=+073,+058,+004
GOES6-MAX=P:+172NT@ 1841UT GOES6-MIN=P:-099NT@ 1946UT G6-AVG=+087,+001,+025
FLUXFCST=STD:212,215,215;SESC:213,218,220 BAI/PAI-FCST=030,020,010/035,030,020
KFCST=4556 5544 4445 5433 27DAY-AP=029,017 27DAY-KP=5454 4333 4333 3432
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*PROTFLR;*PROTON;*PCA;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN;*AURLOWWCH
ALERTS=**PROTN10;**MINSTRM;**MINFLR:M1.7@1044;**MINFLR:M3.0@0616;
**MINFLR:M1.8@2250;**MAGSI:17NT@1815
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
A plethora of radio-rich C-class flares mixed in with a few M-class
events were observed today from Regions 6850 (S12W02) and 6853 (S19E02). Of
these flares, the most energetic was the Class M3.0/SF at 06:16 UT from
Region 6853. Two other M-class events were observed from these regions
before the day ended, both of which were radio rich.
Regions 6850 and 6853 showed continued growth today with a steady
increase in magnetic complexity, white light complexity and H-alpha
complexity. This is indeed a formidable complex of regions which is now
passing the central meridian and into the western solar hemisphere. Over the
next four to five days, these regions will be particularly capable of
producing high terrestrial impacts should a major flare develop. The threat
for renewed proton activity will exist until after these regions cross the
west limb between 07 and 09 October. A major solar flare could erupt from
one of these regions at any time. However, most of the activity should
remain confined to the C and minor M-class levels.
Two new regions were numbered today: Region 6860 (S27E20) and Region
6861 (N13E51).
An interplanetary shockwave arrived at 18:15 UT. This shock could have
been caused by the class M7.3/4B tenflare of 29 September, or it could have
been generated by the disappearing filament of 28 September. The true source
is not known at this time.
Prior to the shock arrival, protons at greater than 10 MeV passed the
event threshold of 10 pfu at 17:40 UT. This proton event is not expected to
last long. Protons are currently hovering near the event threshold.
The GOES-6 spacecraft experienced a brief magnetopause crossing at
19:43 UT associated with the high compressional pressure applied by the solar
wind on the magnetosphere following the shock. No other crossings were
noted since that time.
The geomagnetic field has been at very active to major storm levels
since the arrival of the interplanetary shock. The activity is not
particularly energetic at this time, but could become energetic during the
local evening and early morning hours of 01/02 October.
Auroral activity is expected to fluctuate between moderate and high
levels over the middle and high latitude regions over the next 24 to 72
hours.
HF propagation conditions became poor to very poor with near blackout
conditions reported over many high and northerly middle latitude regions on
01 October in conjunction with the arrival of the interplanetary disturbance.
Some improvements followed several hours later, although a general decline in
propagation conditions has been noticed over the last six hours. Conditions
should remain poor to very poor over the high and polar latitude regions.
Middle latitudes may expect generally fair to poor propagation conditions,
while low latitudes should witness good to fair conditions over the next 72
hours. Conditions will be worst on 02 October. Thereafter, a gradual
period of stabilization should occur provided no further major solar flares
erupt.
** End of Daily Update **