home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
Shareware Overload
/
ShartewareOverload.cdr
/
database
/
bcast100.zip
/
SGDBS.ZIP
/
91-09-30.DLY
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
1991-09-30
|
5KB
|
100 lines
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
30 SEPTEMBER, 1991
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 30 SEPTEMBER
-------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 273, 09/30/91
10.7 FLUX=199.8 90-AVG=200 SSN=196 BKI=3433 3332 BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=C1.1 FLU1=1.8E+06 FLU10=2.1E+05 PKI=3444 4433 PAI=023
BOU-DEV=022,040,036,036,035,039,037,018 DEV-AVG=032 NT SWF=01:001
XRAY-MAX= M1.0 @ 2232UT XRAY-MIN= B9.8 @ 1050UT XRAY-AVG= C1.8
NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 2155UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1315UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.5%
PCA-MAX= +0.4DB @ 1545UT PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1725UT PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55310NT @ 0409UT BOUTF-MIN=55258NT @ 1846UT BOUTF-AVG=55291NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+105NT@ 1756UT GOES7-MIN=N:-027NT@ 1136UT G7-AVG=+069,+055,+003
GOES6-MAX=P:+112NT@ 2051UT GOES6-MIN=E:-020NT@ 0521UT G6-AVG=+081,+003,+026
FLUXFCST=STD:205,207,205;SESC:200,201,204 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,025,015/020,025,025
KFCST=3445 4333 4556 5544 27DAY-AP=015,029 27DAY-KP=3343 3222 5454 4333
WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*PROTON;*PROTFLR;*PCA;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWCH
ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.0@2232;**PROTNENH
!!END-DATA!!
BRIEF SUMMARY OF EVENTS
-----------------------
Solar activity was moderate today. A class M1.0 x-ray burst at 22:32 UT
was the only M-class event of the day.
Regions 6850 (S12E07) and 6853 (S20E15) grew during the day. There was
also some reconfiguration and additional growth in the magnetic structure and
complexity of these regions. Region 6853 experienced the most rapid
reconfiguration. The main delta within Region 6850 remained fairly stable.
There may be signs of some additional magnetic shear near the main spot
complex of Region 6850. Both of these regions are complex and are capable of
producing very energetic activity.
To complicate matters, another new area of flux has emerged directly
below (south of) Region 6850 and almost directly west of Region 6853. This
new area has been numbered Region 6858 (S22E07). The only other new region
became visible today on the east limb and was associated with an eruptive
prominence at 14:20 UT. This new Region has been numbered Region 6859
(N01E73).
It seems highly probable that another major solar flare will erupt
sometime this week. Regions 6850 and 6853 (as well as possible interaction
with developing new Region 6858) are highly complex spot groups with high
magnetic gradients and a sufficient amount of shear to produce major
energetic events. Associated with this threat is a moderate to high risk for
further enhancements in proton activity in the near-Earth environment, as
well as associated PCA activity and possible high terrestrial impacts on the
geomagnetic field. We are continuing to monitor the situation closely.
A high-level M-class or a strong X-class flare are likely candidates for
major flare activity from one (or possibly both) of these regions.
A satellite level proton enhancement at greater than 10 MeV began near
07:00 UT on 30 September. The source of this enhancement is likely
yesterdays major class M7.3/4B tenflare. Protons have been very gradually
increasing since that time and are presently hovering near the 3 pfu mark
(in integrated flux units). They are not expected to reach event thresholds
before beginning to decay (barring further major energetic events).
The geomagnetic field has been mostly unsettled to active over the last
24 hours. The coronal hole which was expected to generate possible minor
storm periods has shown some signs of decay over the last 24 hours and may
not produce a terrestrial impact as strong as was previously thought.
Activity is expected to peak on 02 October when the combined effects of the
large disappearing filament of 28 September and yesterdays large solar flare
may produce periods of minor to possibly major storming, particularly over
the high latitude regions. Overall activity should be at mostly active to
minor storm levels.
Auroral activity should remain mostly low to moderate until 02 October
when periods of moderate to high activity may be observed over the high and
northerly middle latitude regions. The activity should last approximately 24
hours if it materializes as expected.
HF propagation conditions have been normal to slightly below normal
today. Conditions ranged from poor levels over the high and polar latitudes
to good over the low latitudes. Middle latitudes witnessed mostly good to
fair propagation conditions. The UT day of 02 October is likely to be the
most disturbed day (barring further major energetic solar events), with
conditions ranging from poor to very poor over the high and polar latitude
regions, to good over the low latitude regions. Middle latitudes should
observe mostly good to fair propagation conditions during the daylight hours,
followed by fair to poor conditions during the night and early morning hours.
Provided no other major solar events occur, an improvement in conditions
should be observed on 03 and 04 October.
** End of Daily Update **