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20140215RSGA.txt
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:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/0318Z from Region 1973 (N06W72). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one and two (16 Feb, 17 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
487 km/s at 15/1239Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 15/1338Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 15/2100Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1235 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (17 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (18 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M 60/60/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 162
Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 160/155/155
90 Day Mean 15 Feb 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 013/015-010/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/05
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 45/25/05