:Product: 0215RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Feb 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/0318Z from Region 1973 (N06W72). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one and two (16 Feb, 17 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (18 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 487 km/s at 15/1239Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 15/1338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 15/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1235 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (18 Feb). III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb Class M 60/60/45 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Feb 162 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 154 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 013/015-010/012-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/15/05 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/15 Major-severe storm 45/25/05