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20140214RSGA.txt
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:Product: 0214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/0257Z from Region 1974 (S12W37). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 471 km/s at
14/0700Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/1903Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -1 nT at 14/1321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1213 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (15 Feb), unsettled
to active levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (17 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 167
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 165/160/160
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 028/040-015/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/15
Minor Storm 40/20/05
Major-severe storm 20/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 75/55/25