:Product: 0214RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Feb 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/0257Z from Region 1974 (S12W37). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 471 km/s at 14/0700Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 14/1321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1213 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (15 Feb), unsettled to active levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Feb). III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb Class M 75/75/75 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Feb 167 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 155 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 006/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 028/040-015/018-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/15 Minor Storm 40/20/05 Major-severe storm 20/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/15 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 75/55/25