home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
2014.05.ftp.sec.noaa.gov.tar
/
ftp.sec.noaa.gov
/
pub
/
warehouse
/
2014
/
RSGA
/
20140203RSGA.txt
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
2014-02-03
|
2KB
|
54 lines
:Product: 0203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/2204Z from Region 1967 (S13E01). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05
Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 469 km/s at
03/0009Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/0028Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/1327Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (06 Feb).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 50/50/50
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 188
Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 185/185/180
90 Day Mean 03 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/05