:Product: 0203RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Feb 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/2204Z from Region 1967 (S13E01). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 469 km/s at 03/0009Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/0028Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/1327Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (06 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb). III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb Class M 80/80/80 Class X 50/50/50 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Feb 188 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 007/008-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/15 Major-severe storm 25/20/05