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20140202RSGA.txt
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:Product: 0202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4/1b event observed at
02/0931Z from Region 1967 (S13E01). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04
Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
426 km/s at 02/1515Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/1522Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0309Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Feb), quiet to active
levels on day two (04 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (05 Feb).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days two and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 50/50/50
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 190
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 195/200/205
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 008/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/05