:Product: 0202RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Feb 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4/1b event observed at 02/0931Z from Region 1967 (S13E01). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at 02/1515Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/1522Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0309Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (04 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (05 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb). III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb Class M 80/80/80 Class X 50/50/50 Proton 05/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Feb 190 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 195/200/205 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 008/008-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 25/25/05