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20140119RSGA.txt
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:Product: 0119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/0658Z from Region 1959 (S24E58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 329 km/s at
18/2355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 317 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (20 Jan, 22 Jan) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (21 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 128
Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 19 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 006/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/05
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/25/05