:Product: 0119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/0658Z from Region 1959 (S24E58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 329 km/s at
18/2355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 317 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (20 Jan, 22 Jan) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (21 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 128
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  006/005-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/05
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/25/05