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20140118RSGA.txt
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:Product: 0118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
18/1204Z from Region 1959 (S26E65). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan,
21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 393 km/s at
18/0309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 384 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Jan, 20 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (21 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 130
Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 18 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/25