FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 344
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 09 DEC 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5265 (N19E08)
PRODUCED NEARLY ALL OF THE FLARES OBSERVED DURING THE INTERVAL,
AMONG THEM AN M2/1N AT 0320Z AND AN M3/0N AT 0737Z. BOTH OF
THOSE IMPULSIVE EVENTS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST DISCRETE
FREQUENCY RADIO BURSTS. THE H-ALPHA FLARES WERE LARGELY CONFINED
TO THE PLAGE IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MAIN SPOT, PERHAPS THE
SITE OF AN ISOLATED POLE. ELSEWHERE, TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED: 5272 (S15E63) AND 5273 (S33E72). MINOR SURGING WAS
REPORTED AT BOTH LIMBS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5265 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS, MARKING THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF QUIET
CONDITIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 DEC-12 DEC
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 DEC  170
PREDICTED   10 DEC-12 DEC  172/175/178
90 DAY MEAN        09 DEC  161
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 08 DEC  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 DEC  001/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 DEC-12 DEC  005/006-010/010-010/010