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19881116RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 321
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 16 NOV 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 5229 (N33W18)
PRODUCED MOST OF THE NINE M-CLASS EVENTS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ACTIVITY INCLUDED: AN M2 TENFLARE WITH TYPE II AND IV SWEEP
AT 0634Z OBSERVED BY SMM; AND AN M4 AT 0413Z, ALSO SEEN BY SMM.
THE REGION HAS DECAYED IN ITS CENTRAL PORTION BUT REMAINS
VOLATILE. REGION 5240 (N21E34) ALSO CONTRIBUTED WITH AN M2/1N
AT 1500Z. OTHER SPOTTED REGIONS EXHIBITED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH
DURING THE PERIOD AS EVIDENCED BY THE SHARP INCREASE IN TODAY'S
10.7 CM. FLUX.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. LOOK FOR CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM
REGIONS 5229 AND 5240. REGIONS 5227 (S23W67), 5243 (S33W52),
AND CLOSELY-SPACED 5228 (N22W45) AND 5242 (N27W49), MAY ALSO
CONTRIBUTE OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 NOV-19 NOV
CLASS M 90/90/90
CLASS X 30/30/30
PROTON 30/30/30
PCAF YELLOW
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 16 NOV 189
PREDICTED 17 NOV-19 NOV 193/197/197
90 DAY MEAN 16 NOV 160
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 NOV 010/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV 013/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV 005/015-005/010-005/010