FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 321
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 16 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 5229 (N33W18)
PRODUCED MOST OF THE NINE M-CLASS EVENTS OF THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ACTIVITY INCLUDED: AN M2 TENFLARE WITH TYPE II AND IV SWEEP
AT 0634Z OBSERVED BY SMM; AND AN M4 AT 0413Z, ALSO SEEN BY SMM.
THE REGION HAS DECAYED IN ITS CENTRAL PORTION BUT REMAINS
VOLATILE. REGION 5240 (N21E34) ALSO CONTRIBUTED WITH AN M2/1N
AT 1500Z. OTHER SPOTTED REGIONS EXHIBITED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH
DURING THE PERIOD AS EVIDENCED BY THE SHARP INCREASE IN TODAY'S
10.7 CM. FLUX.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. LOOK FOR CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM
REGIONS 5229 AND 5240. REGIONS 5227 (S23W67), 5243 (S33W52),
AND CLOSELY-SPACED 5228 (N22W45) AND 5242 (N27W49), MAY ALSO
CONTRIBUTE OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 NOV-19 NOV
CLASS M    90/90/90
CLASS X    30/30/30
PROTON     30/30/30
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 NOV  189
PREDICTED   17 NOV-19 NOV  193/197/197
90 DAY MEAN        16 NOV  160
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 15 NOV  010/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV  013/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV  005/015-005/010-005/010