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19881115RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 320
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 15 NOV 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE SUN HAS BECOME
SUDDENLY QUIET AFTER IT PRODUCED TWELVE M-CLASS EVENTS SINCE
EARLY ON 13 NOV. THE LARGEST FLARES OF THIS PERIOD WERE BUT
TWO C-7 SUBFLARES AT 1754 AND 2041Z FROM REGION 5227 (S23W52).
YESTERDAY'S OTHER M-CLASS REGIONS, 5229 (N33W08) AND 5240
(N21E46), YIELDED OCCASIONAL SMALLER FLARES. THREE NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. ALL THREE OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVE REGIONS -
5227, 5229, AND 5240 - ARE STILL LIKELY TO PRODUCE M-CLASS
ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE IS
ALSO DISTINCTLY POSSIBLE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN DECLINE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 NOV-18 NOV
CLASS M 90/90/90
CLASS X 30/30/30
PROTON 30/30/30
PCAF YELLOW
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 15 NOV 174
PREDICTED 16 NOV-18 NOV 177/179/179
90 DAY MEAN 15 NOV 159
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 NOV 010/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV 010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV 015/025-005/020-005/015