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19881114RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 319
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 14 NOV 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. THE NINE M-CLASS EVENTS
THAT OCCURRED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE ALMOST EQUALLY
DISTRIBUTED AMONG THREE ACTIVE REGIONS. THE HIGHLIGHTS WERE: AN
M3/1N TENFLARE WITH TYPE II AND IV SWEEP AT 0010Z FROM REGION
5227 (S23W40); AN M2/2B TENFLARE AT 1447Z FROM REGION 5229
(N32E05); AND AN M4/2B AT 1951Z FROM REGION 5240 (N21E59). ALL
OF THESE REGIONS REMAIN COMPLEX AND POTENT AT THIS WRITING. A
20 DEGREE-LONG EAST-WEST FILAMENT DISAPPEARED FROM S45E20 VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION IS 5241 (N28E76).
CALCIUM XV (YELLOW LINE) EMISSION WAS OBSERVED AT THAT SITE.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT HIGH LEVELS. PERIODIC M-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD
PERSIST FROM THE THREE MAIN ACTIVE CENTERS. AN ISOLATED
X-CLASS EVENT IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED. A SMALL PROTON
EVENT BEGAN AT 0130Z, REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 13 PFU AT 0235Z,
AND ENDED AT 0310Z. PARTICLE DATA SUGGEST THE M3/1N FLARE
FROM REGION 5227 AS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THE PROTONS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. TWO FACTORS MAY COMBINE TO GENERATE THE DISTURB-
ANCE: A CORONAL HOLE NEAR N15W25 AND THE M3/1N FLARE AT 0010Z
TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD ABATE BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 NOV-17 NOV
CLASS M 90/90/90
CLASS X 30/30/30
PROTON 30/30/30
PCAF YELLOW
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 14 NOV 179
PREDICTED 15 NOV-17 NOV 182/184/186
90 DAY MEAN 14 NOV 158
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 NOV 008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV 013/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV 020/020-015/030-005/020