FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO SDF NUMBER 319 JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY. ISSUED 2200Z 14 NOV 1988 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. THE NINE M-CLASS EVENTS THAT OCCURRED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE ALMOST EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED AMONG THREE ACTIVE REGIONS. THE HIGHLIGHTS WERE: AN M3/1N TENFLARE WITH TYPE II AND IV SWEEP AT 0010Z FROM REGION 5227 (S23W40); AN M2/2B TENFLARE AT 1447Z FROM REGION 5229 (N32E05); AND AN M4/2B AT 1951Z FROM REGION 5240 (N21E59). ALL OF THESE REGIONS REMAIN COMPLEX AND POTENT AT THIS WRITING. A 20 DEGREE-LONG EAST-WEST FILAMENT DISAPPEARED FROM S45E20 VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION IS 5241 (N28E76). CALCIUM XV (YELLOW LINE) EMISSION WAS OBSERVED AT THAT SITE. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT HIGH LEVELS. PERIODIC M-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FROM THE THREE MAIN ACTIVE CENTERS. AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY UNSETTLED. A SMALL PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 0130Z, REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 13 PFU AT 0235Z, AND ENDED AT 0310Z. PARTICLE DATA SUGGEST THE M3/1N FLARE FROM REGION 5227 AS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THE PROTONS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TWO FACTORS MAY COMBINE TO GENERATE THE DISTURB- ANCE: A CORONAL HOLE NEAR N15W25 AND THE M3/1N FLARE AT 0010Z TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD ABATE BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 NOV-17 NOV CLASS M 90/90/90 CLASS X 30/30/30 PROTON 30/30/30 PCAF YELLOW IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 14 NOV 179 PREDICTED 15 NOV-17 NOV 182/184/186 90 DAY MEAN 14 NOV 158 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 NOV 008/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV 013/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV 020/020-015/030-005/020