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19881107RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 312
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 07 NOV 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5212 (S18W54)
PRODUCED AN M3/1N FLARE AT 7/1111Z. NO SIGNIFICANT RADIO ASPECTS
ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. THE REGION RETAINED MUCH OF IT SIZE AND
COMPLICATED MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 5218 (N12W10) ALSO
EVOLVED TO A COMPLICATED MAGNETIC STRUCTURE, BUT ITS POTENTIAL
ENERGY, AS DEPICTED BY MAGNETIC GRADIENT, IS COMPARATIVELY LESS
THAN REGION 5212. A CME WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN 6/2212 AND 6/2337Z
FROM THE SOUTHEAST LIMB. TWO SMALL REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED IN THE
SOUTHEAST SECTOR. NEITHER PRODUCED ANY RECORDED EVENTS.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5212 PROVIDES A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE, AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH ACTIVITY. IT ALSO SUPPORTS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE. REGION 5218 INCREASINGLY PROVIDES
A VERY SLIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT LEVEL ACTIVITY AS
IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP GREATER MAGNETIC SHEAR.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY ACTIVE.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. THE CURRENT ACTIVE LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO RECURRENTLY LOWER LEVELS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 NOV-10 NOV
CLASS M 75/75/75
CLASS X 15/15/15
PROTON 20/20/20
PCAF YELLOW
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 07 NOV 155
PREDICTED 08 NOV-10 NOV 145/135/125
90 DAY MEAN 07 NOV 158
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 NOV 012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 NOV 016/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 NOV-10 NOV 015/025-012/020-008/016