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19881106RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 311
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 06 NOV 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 5212
(S17W45) PRODUCED AN M4/2B FLARE AT 06/1829Z. THE FLARE WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY A 120 FLUX UNIT TENFLARE AS WELL AS MINOR
DISCRETE FREQUENCY BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. REGION 5212
PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES PRIOR TO THE EVENT. REGION
5218 (N11E03) DISPLAYED A SMALL INCREASE IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY,
BUT REMAINED RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGION
5224 (N24W67) EMERGED TODAY AS A SMALL UNIPOLE. TWO CORONAL MASS
EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE FIRST CME DEPARTED THE
NORTHEAST LIMB NEAR 05/0445Z. ITS VELOCITY WAS UNKNOWN. THE
SECOND DEPARTED THE SOUTHEAST LIMB BETWEEN 05/1100-1530Z AND WAS
OF AVERAGE VELOCITY; ITS SOURCE MAY HAVE BEEN FROM BEHIND THE
LIMB.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 5212 RETAINED ITS COMPLICATED MAGNETIC
STRUCTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE M4/2B. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL
M-CLASS FLARES MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR X-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM THIS REGION.
REGION 5218 PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM LEVELS OCCURRED NEAR 06/0600Z AND 06/1500Z.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
DURING THE THIRD DAY IN RESPONSE TO TODAY'S FLARE ACTIVITY.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 NOV-09 NOV
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF YELLOW
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 06 NOV 165
PREDICTED 07 NOV-09 NOV 164/164/163
90 DAY MEAN 06 NOV 158
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 NOV 010/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 NOV 010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 NOV-09 NOV 010/015-007/015-010/020