FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 312
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 07 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5212 (S18W54)
PRODUCED AN M3/1N FLARE AT 7/1111Z. NO SIGNIFICANT RADIO ASPECTS
ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. THE REGION RETAINED MUCH OF IT SIZE AND
COMPLICATED MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 5218 (N12W10) ALSO
EVOLVED TO A COMPLICATED MAGNETIC STRUCTURE, BUT ITS POTENTIAL
ENERGY, AS DEPICTED BY MAGNETIC GRADIENT, IS COMPARATIVELY LESS
THAN REGION 5212. A CME WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN 6/2212 AND 6/2337Z
FROM THE SOUTHEAST LIMB. TWO SMALL REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED IN THE
SOUTHEAST SECTOR. NEITHER PRODUCED ANY RECORDED EVENTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5212 PROVIDES A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE, AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH ACTIVITY. IT ALSO SUPPORTS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE. REGION 5218 INCREASINGLY PROVIDES
A VERY SLIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT LEVEL ACTIVITY AS
IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP GREATER MAGNETIC SHEAR.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. THE CURRENT ACTIVE LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO RECURRENTLY LOWER LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 NOV-10 NOV
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 NOV  155
PREDICTED   08 NOV-10 NOV  145/135/125
90 DAY MEAN        07 NOV  158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 06 NOV  012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 NOV  016/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 NOV-10 NOV  015/025-012/020-008/016