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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 306
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 01 NOV 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. NEW REGION
5218 (N11E69) PRODUCED AN M3/1N FLARE AT 01/1102Z. THIS FLARE
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE IV SWEEP AND A RADIO BURST OF 160
FLUX UNITS AT 2695 MHZ. THIS REGION ROTATED AROUND THE EAST
LIMB AS A MODERATELY LARGE D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION
5212 (S16E21) CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COMPLEXITY.
THIS REGION WAS THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO A LONG DURATION
(ABOUT THREE HOUR) C9.2 X-RAY ENHANCEMENT WHICH REACHED A
MAXIMUM AT 01/1649Z.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 5218 COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER M-CLASS
FLARE. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED ENERGETIC FLARE FROM
REGION 5212 WILL INCREASE AS THE REGION DEVELOPS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY
QUIET LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD
HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
AND UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. A CORONAL HOLE
DISTURBANCE MAY BEGIN LATE ON THE THIRD DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 NOV-04 NOV
CLASS M 30/30/30
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 01 NOV 157
PREDICTED 02 NOV-04 NOV 152/150/152
90 DAY MEAN 01 NOV 158
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 OCT 012/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 NOV 005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 NOV-04 NOV 007/015-007/020-015/027