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19881102RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 307
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 02 NOV 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 5218
(S17E08) PRODUCED AN M1/SN AT 01/2151Z. MINOR RADIO EMISSIONS
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVENT. THIS REGION HAS BEEN PRODUCING
SUBFLARES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. REGION 5212 (N11E56) PRODUCED
SEVERAL SUBFLARES AS WELL, THE LARGEST BEING A C5/SF 02/1001Z.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG MAGNETIC DELTA
CONFIGURATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE TRAILER PORTION OF THE
REGION. THE SOLAR MAXIMUM MISSION (SMM) SATELLITE DETECTED A
LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-
DURATION C9/SF THAT OCCURRED AT 01/1649Z. ITS VELOCITY WAS
DESCRIBED AS FASTER THAN AVERAGE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED TODAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY
FROM REGIONS 5212 AND 5218.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE HIGH
LATITUDE FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE
ORIGIN OF THE STORMING IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES AND AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH
LATITUDES. THE HIGH LATITUDE STORMING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATE ON THE SECOND DAY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 NOV-05 NOV
CLASS M 40/40/40
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 02 NOV 167
PREDICTED 03 NOV-05 NOV 170/172/172
90 DAY MEAN 02 NOV 158
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 NOV 007/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 NOV 017/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 NOV-05 NOV 010/020-015/027-018/034