FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 306
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 01 NOV 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  NEW REGION
5218 (N11E69) PRODUCED AN M3/1N FLARE AT 01/1102Z.  THIS FLARE
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE IV SWEEP AND A RADIO BURST OF 160
FLUX UNITS AT 2695 MHZ.  THIS REGION ROTATED AROUND THE EAST
LIMB AS A MODERATELY LARGE D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.  REGION
5212 (S16E21) CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COMPLEXITY.
THIS REGION WAS THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO A LONG DURATION
(ABOUT THREE HOUR) C9.2 X-RAY ENHANCEMENT WHICH REACHED A
MAXIMUM AT 01/1649Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE.  REGION 5218 COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER M-CLASS
FLARE.  THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED ENERGETIC FLARE FROM
REGION 5212 WILL INCREASE AS THE REGION DEVELOPS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD AT MIDDLE LATITUDES HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY
QUIET LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE HIGH LATITUDE FIELD
HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
AND UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.  A CORONAL HOLE
DISTURBANCE MAY BEGIN LATE ON THE THIRD DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 NOV-04 NOV
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 NOV  157
PREDICTED   02 NOV-04 NOV  152/150/152
90 DAY MEAN        01 NOV  158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 31 OCT  012/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 NOV  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 NOV-04 NOV  007/015-007/020-015/027