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19880926RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 270
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 26 SEP 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED WITH THE LARGEST A C6/0F FROM REGION 5158 (S36W51) AT
0300Z. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 5171 (S26E73) IS A MATURE SPOT AND
SCATTERED PLAGE. SURGING WAS OBSERVED AT WEST LIMB NEAR N20.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AT MID-LATITUDES.
GENERALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVAILED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO A WELL-LOCATED CORONAL HOLE. ACTIVITY THE LAST
TWO DAYS MAY RANGE FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS AS
THE POTENTIAL GEOEFFECTIVENESS OF THE M2/2B FLARE OF 25 SEPT.
IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 SEP-29 SEP
CLASS M 25/25/25
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 26 SEP 172
PREDICTED 27 SEP-29 SEP 169/166/162
90 DAY MEAN 26 SEP 153
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 SEP 010/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 SEP 010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 SEP-29 SEP 020/030-010/070-010/055