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19880925RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 269
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 25 SEP 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5169 (S21E48)
PRODUCED THE SOLE M-CLASS EVENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, AN M2/2B
AT 0050Z. A BURST OF 710 FLUX UNITS AT 10 CM. AND TYPE II AND
IV SWEEP WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE. A LARGE CME ACCOMPAN-
IED THE ACTIVITY. THIS VERY ORDINARY LOOKING REGION HAS BEEN
QUIET SINCE. SURGING OCCURRED NEAR S24E90 WHILE THE WEST LIMB
WAS QUIET.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNSETTLED AT MID-
LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES OBSERVED MOSTLY ACTIVE
CONDITIONS AFTER A STINT OF MAJOR STORM LEVELS EARLY IN
THE DAY.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A CORONAL
HOLE-INDUCED DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED 27 SEPT. AND THEN
SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 SEP-28 SEP
CLASS M 40/40/40
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 25 SEP 177
PREDICTED 26 SEP-28 SEP 175/173/168
90 DAY MEAN 25 SEP 153
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 SEP 007/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 SEP 009/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 SEP-28 SEP 015/025-020/040-010/030