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19880927RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 271
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 27 SEP 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 5171 (S25E58)
PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS EVENTS, AN M1/2F AT 0958Z AND AN M7/2B AT
1621Z. THE LATTER FLARE HAD A BURST OF 310 FLUX UNITS AT 10 CM.
AND A TYPE II SWEEP. THE REGION IS NOT PARTICULARLY DISTINCTIVE
IN WHITE LIGHT OR H-ALPHA, BUT DOES DISPLAY SOME DEGREE OF
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 5172 (S21W59) IS
SIMPLE. THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT A MODERATE LEVEL. PERIODIC M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY FROM REGION 5171.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET AT MID-
LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES WERE MOSTLY UNSETTLED. CORONAL
HOLE EFFECTS FORECAST FOR TODAY DID NOT OCCUR.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS
DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE M2/2B FLARE OF 25 SEPT.
IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE AND MAKES ELEVATED ACTIVITY, HOWEVER
UNLIKELY, POSSIBLE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 SEP-30 SEP
CLASS M 60/60/60
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 27 SEP 173
PREDICTED 28 SEP-30 SEP 170/167/164
90 DAY MEAN 27 SEP 153
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP 008/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP 010/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP 010/070-010/055-010/035