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19880924RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 268
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 24 SEP 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUES LOW. FREQUENT C-CLASS
ACTIVITY OCCURRED AGAIN TODAY WITH THE C5/1F EVENT AT 1347Z THE
LARGEST OBSERVED. REGION 5156 (S16W36) PRODUCED THAT FLARE
WHICH ALSO HAD AN ASSOCIATED TYPE IV SWEEP. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE ASSIGNED - 5169 (S22E60) AND 5170 (N26E16). SURGING
WAS REPORTED AT N20E90.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS VERY POSSIBLE
BUT NOT LIKELY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AT MID-LATITUDES.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE THE RULE AT HIGH
LATITUDES.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A
CORONAL HOLE-RELATED DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN LATE ON
26 SEPT. AND BRING ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS BY THE
END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 SEP-27 SEP
CLASS M 40/40/40
CLASS X 10/10/10
PROTON 10/10/10
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 24 SEP 179
PREDICTED 25 SEP-27 SEP 181/183/185
90 DAY MEAN 24 SEP 153
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 SEP 010/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 SEP 005/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 SEP-27 SEP 005/015-015/025-020/030