FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 268
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 24 SEP 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUES LOW. FREQUENT C-CLASS
ACTIVITY OCCURRED AGAIN TODAY WITH THE C5/1F EVENT AT 1347Z THE
LARGEST OBSERVED. REGION 5156 (S16W36) PRODUCED THAT FLARE
WHICH ALSO HAD AN ASSOCIATED TYPE IV SWEEP. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE ASSIGNED - 5169 (S22E60) AND 5170 (N26E16).  SURGING
WAS REPORTED AT N20E90.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW TO MODERATE. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS VERY POSSIBLE
BUT NOT LIKELY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AT MID-LATITUDES.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE THE RULE AT HIGH
LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A
CORONAL HOLE-RELATED DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN LATE ON
26 SEPT. AND BRING ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS BY THE
END OF THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 SEP-27 SEP
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 SEP  179
PREDICTED   25 SEP-27 SEP  181/183/185
90 DAY MEAN        24 SEP  153
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 23 SEP  010/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 SEP  005/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 SEP-27 SEP  005/015-015/025-020/030