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19880828RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 241
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 28 AUG 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5131 (S18E57) WAS
THE MOST PRODUCTIVE WITH A C4/0N SUBFLARE WITHOUT ANY RADIO
PARAMETERS. NO NEW REGION WAS ASSIGNED.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5131 PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. THE LOW ENERGY
PROTON VALUES WERE ENHANCED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE LAST TWO DAYS' FLUCTUATIONS IS
NOT THAT OF A PROTON EVENT, BUT RATHER MORE AN ACCUMMULATIVE
INCREASE FROM MORE THAN A SINGLE SOURCE. FREQUENT, VERY SHORT
TERM INTERVALS OF VALUES JUST AT AND ABOVE THE EVENT LEVEL
THRESHOLD WERE OBSERVED BOTH YESTERDAY AND TODAY. THESE SEVEN
BRIEF INTERVALS VARIED FROM 15 TO 90 MINUTES IN DURATION AND
NEVER EXCEEDED 14 P/SQ.CM-S-SR IN INTENSITY AT THE 10 MEV
ENERGY LEVEL. THE ENHANCEMENT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 AUG-31 AUG
CLASS M 25/25/25
CLASS X 03/03/03
PROTON 03/03/03
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 28 AUG 171
PREDICTED 29 AUG-31 AUG 176/180/182
90 DAY MEAN 28 AUG 148
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 AUG 013/029
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG 008/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG 010/020-012/022-012/018