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19880827RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 240
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 27 AUG 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION
5131 (S19E67) PRODUCED A C4/0F SUBFLARE WITH NO ASSOCIATED RADIO
PARAMETERS. IT WAS SEEN AS A DAO TYPE. THE SECOND NEWLY ASSIGNED
REGION, 5130 (N15E11), EMERGED VERY RAPIDLY BUT PRODUCED ONLY
SUBFLARES WITH FEW ASPECTS OTHER THAN OPTICAL. A DIFFUSED
STREAMER-TYPE CME OCCURRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5131 PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY.
IT MAY PROVE TO BE MORE COMPLICATED UPON BETTER SEEING POSITION.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT HIGH LATITUDES THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 AUG-30 AUG
CLASS M 35/35/35
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 27 AUG 163
PREDICTED 28 AUG-30 AUG 172/180/185
90 DAY MEAN 27 AUG 148
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 AUG 010/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 AUG 014/026
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 AUG-30 AUG 012/020-012/020-014/022