FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 241
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 28 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 5131 (S18E57) WAS
THE MOST PRODUCTIVE  WITH A C4/0N SUBFLARE WITHOUT ANY RADIO
PARAMETERS. NO NEW REGION WAS ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5131 PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. THE LOW ENERGY
PROTON VALUES WERE ENHANCED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE LAST TWO DAYS' FLUCTUATIONS IS
NOT THAT OF A PROTON EVENT, BUT RATHER MORE AN ACCUMMULATIVE
INCREASE FROM MORE THAN A SINGLE SOURCE. FREQUENT, VERY SHORT
TERM INTERVALS OF VALUES JUST AT AND ABOVE THE EVENT LEVEL
THRESHOLD WERE OBSERVED BOTH YESTERDAY AND TODAY. THESE SEVEN
BRIEF INTERVALS VARIED FROM 15 TO 90 MINUTES IN DURATION AND
NEVER EXCEEDED 14 P/SQ.CM-S-SR IN INTENSITY AT THE 10 MEV
ENERGY LEVEL. THE ENHANCEMENT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 AUG-31 AUG
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    03/03/03
PROTON     03/03/03
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 AUG  171
PREDICTED   29 AUG-31 AUG  176/180/182
90 DAY MEAN        28 AUG  148
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 27 AUG  013/029
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG  008/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG  010/020-012/022-012/018