FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 240
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 27 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION
5131 (S19E67) PRODUCED A C4/0F SUBFLARE WITH NO ASSOCIATED RADIO
PARAMETERS. IT WAS SEEN AS A DAO TYPE. THE SECOND NEWLY ASSIGNED
REGION, 5130 (N15E11), EMERGED VERY RAPIDLY BUT PRODUCED ONLY
SUBFLARES WITH FEW ASPECTS OTHER THAN OPTICAL. A DIFFUSED
STREAMER-TYPE CME OCCURRED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW. REGION 5131 PROVIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY.
IT MAY PROVE TO BE MORE COMPLICATED UPON BETTER SEEING POSITION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE TO UNSETTLED. MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT HIGH LATITUDES THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 AUG-30 AUG
CLASS M    35/35/35
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 AUG  163
PREDICTED   28 AUG-30 AUG  172/180/185
90 DAY MEAN        27 AUG  148
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 26 AUG  010/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 AUG  014/026
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 AUG-30 AUG  012/020-012/020-014/022