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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 217
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 04 AUG 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5090 (N15W84)
HAS CONTINUED ITS SUBFLARE ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINED ITS MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. REGION 5092 (N28W28) IS EXHIBITING SLOW DECAY,
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A LARGE AND COMPLEX SPOT GROUP WITH A
BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. ONE NEW REGION WAS ASSIGNED,
REGION 5101 (S14E15), WHICH EMERGED AS A SIMPLE UNIPOLAR SPOT
GROUP.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS, 5090 AND 5092, SHOW THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF X-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT MIDDLE GEOMAGNETIC
LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE
LAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 AUG-07 AUG
CLASS M 65/65/65
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 05/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 04 AUG 159
PREDICTED 05 AUG-07 AUG 157/154/150
90 DAY MEAN 04 AUG 139
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 AUG 007/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 AUG 002/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 AUG-07 AUG 007/018-010/018-010/020