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19880805RSGA.txt
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FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 218
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 05 AUG 1988
IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5092 (N28W41)
HAS ONLY PRODUCED SUBFLARES, HOWEVER, IT REMAINS A LARGE AND
MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX SPOT GROUP. REGION 5101 (S14E01) HAS SHOWN
SIGNIFICANT GROWTH SINCE ITS EMERGENCE ONTO THE DISK YESTERDAY.
WEST LIMB SURGING HAS BEEN OBSERVED FROM REGIONS 5084 (S20) AND
5090 (N15), BOTH OF WHICH ROTATED OVER THE LIMB EARLY TODAY.
IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 5092 SHOWS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARES. THE WEST LIMB ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS
REGION 5092, PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A PROTON EVENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE
GEOMAGNETIC LATITUDES AND MOSTLY ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 AUG-08 AUG
CLASS M 50/50/50
CLASS X 05/05/05
PROTON 10/05/05
PCAF GREEN
IV. OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED 05 AUG 155
PREDICTED 06 AUG-08 AUG 154/150/145
90 DAY MEAN 05 AUG 140
V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 AUG 002/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 AUG 008/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 AUG-08 AUG 010/018-010/020-010/020