FROM SPACE ENVIRONMENT SERVICES CENTER, BOULDER, COLORADO
SDF NUMBER 217
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
ISSUED 2200Z 04 AUG 1988
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 5090 (N15W84)
HAS CONTINUED ITS SUBFLARE ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINED ITS MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. REGION 5092 (N28W28) IS EXHIBITING SLOW DECAY,
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A LARGE AND COMPLEX SPOT GROUP WITH A
BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. ONE NEW REGION WAS ASSIGNED,
REGION 5101 (S14E15), WHICH EMERGED AS A SIMPLE UNIPOLAR SPOT
GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS, 5090 AND 5092, SHOW THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF X-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT MIDDLE GEOMAGNETIC
LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE
LAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 AUG-07 AUG
CLASS M    65/65/65
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  OTTAWA 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 AUG  159
PREDICTED   05 AUG-07 AUG  157/154/150
90 DAY MEAN        04 AUG  139
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 03 AUG  007/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 AUG  002/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 AUG-07 AUG  007/018-010/018-010/020